000
AXNT20 KNHC 311755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 20N27W TO 15N24W TO 09N20W MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH VALUES
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 07N TO 27N E OF 31W. WHILE
AMPLE MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BELOW 850 MB...A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION N OF
13N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
08N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W AND IS MORE LIKELY THE RESULT OF
PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N51W TO 13N50W TO 08N46W MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. EARLIER
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED NON-RAINED
FLAGGED NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...MAINLY N OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N70W TO 10N74W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 67W AND 75W.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE GENERATING
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N86W TO 11N81W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES
TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N
TO 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N17W 08N33W 10N45W 08N60W 11N70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 12N ALONG
34W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 44W.
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W
AND 53W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...THAT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 34W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-SE TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF
N OF 26N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W AND IS PROVIDING THE SE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N84W TO 24N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO THE EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ARE LOCATED FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND 91W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 95W WITH A 1014 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N95W AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
INTERIOR EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N98W KEEPING SKIES
RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF 91W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 74W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W
OF 85W AND FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W. FARTHER TO THE SE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 86W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N
IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS PROVIDING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS. E-SE CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ARE
PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 16N. OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...THE 31/1200
UTC SOUNDINGS FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND SANTO DOMINGO
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM 850 MB TO 600 MB...RESULTING IN
STABLE AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING TO 31N66W. THIS TROUGH IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N67W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N75W TO THE
COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR BRUNSWICK. AN AREA OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEPICTED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO 27N78W NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED N OF 26N BETWEEN
65W-79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N TO 70W. THIS
IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 46N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ALONG
32N53W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N71W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
HUFFMAN
