000
AXNT20 KNHC 072342
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N8W TO 2N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO EQ30W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 24W-38W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 23N93W 18N93W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 93W TO AS FAR N AS CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO W CUBA NEAR
22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR S OF 27N AND E OF
83W. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT
CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA ...THE SRN GULF S OF
25N...AND MEXICO E OF 100W...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR A PATCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W TO S
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. THE TAIL END COLD FRONT IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N41W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
26N44W TO 18N46W PRODUCING ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WIND
SHIFTS. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
40N18W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 30W FROM 10N-25N SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. ALSO EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
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FORMOSA
